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Economic news on the impact of foreign exchange

2023/2/24 18:52:01  Classification:   Participation: 6  

Th bestforexrebate arrangement is not absolute, for example, the United States rebate rebatemeaninginforexforextrading trade quarterly statistics had been one of the most important impact on the cashback forex trend data before the mid-80s, whenever the United States trade figures announced a few days before, the foreign best forex rebate rebatesinforex will appear all kinds of speculation and forecasts, causing sharp fluctuations in the foreign exchange market but after the mid to late 80s, its role is less and less, because The market has really realized that the current foreign exchange market transactions, international trade volume accounted for only about 1% of the proportion so, now the United States foreign trade statistics released, the foreign exchange market often does not make a big response to it (a) interest rate policy in a variety of economic data, the countries on interest rate adjustments and government monetary policy trends is undoubtedly the most important foreign exchange rates and interest rates in relation to each other. This paper does not do a detailed introduction but here to emphasize that sometimes the government although there is no any indication to change monetary policy, but as long as the market has this expectation, or that other countries have taken similar action then, the foreign exchange market will continue to exist this government will change the policy expectations, so that this countrys currency exchange rate fluctuates significantly For example, in the second half of 1992, Germany pursued an anti-inflationary tight monetary policy, the German Central Bank repeatedly, repeatedly stated to adhere to this policy, but the foreign exchange market often circulated rumors and speculation that Germany will reduce interest rates, the reason is that Germanys interest rates have been raised to the top Although Germany did not have any interest rate reduction movement, but in the United Kingdom, France, Denmark, Sweden and other interest rate reductions, the foreign exchange market and stubbornly believe that Germany will reduce interest rates, even if not at the end of the year, the beginning of the second year will also be reduced This makes the mark to the dollar exchange rate in the United States and Germanys interest rate differential is still very large, falling (b) non-farm payrolls U.S. on the number of non-agricultural employment and unemployment rate is the number of short-term fluctuations in recent years to influence the foreign exchange market important data this group of figures by the U.S. Department of Labor in the first Friday of each month published in the foreign exchange market, it is the U.S. macroeconomic barometer, the figures themselves Therefore, one or two days before the release of this set of figures, as long as the market has any rumors about this figure may be good, the dollar selling wind will be stopped. Continuously throw the dollar, so that the exchange rate of foreign exchange against the dollar climbing, the exchange rate of the pound against the dollar from 1.60 in July 1991 to 1.89 in early January 1992, January 9, that is, the U.S. Department of Labor announced the U.S. non-agricultural employment in December of the previous year may increase by 100,000, resulting in the opening of the foreign exchange market on this day, people began to throw foreign exchange to buy the dollar, the pound against the The dollar exchange rate from 1.88 to 1.86, down nearly 200 points after a few hours, the foreign exchange market began to panic buy the dollar, the mark, the pound, the Swiss franc and other currency against the dollar appeared wildly, the pound and fell nearly 600 points, down to 1.8050 the next day, although the number of non-farm payrolls announced an increase of only 30,000, but this panic changed the next four months the dollar against other foreign exchange The trend of the U.S. dollar in the U.S. economic outlook on the premise of a rise, until April, the U.S. economic situation is not as good as expected the fact that the foreign exchange market accepted, the dollar has since begun to go downhill again  (C) other economic data some other U.S. economic statistics also have an impact on the foreign exchange market, these data include industrial production, personal income, gross national product (c) some other U.S. economic statistics also have an impact on the foreign exchange market, these data include industrial production, personal income, gross national product, the start rate, inventory rate, the U.S. economic composite indicators of the leading index, new housing starts, car sales, etc., but they are compared with the number of non-agricultural employment, the impact on the foreign exchange market is much smaller these economic indicators on the foreign exchange market also has its unique law in general, when the dollar is a bullish trend, any of the indicators in the announcement as long as slightly better, will be used by the foreign exchange market As the reason for throwing foreign exchange to buy the dollar, so that the dollar further up, while the indicators are negative, the foreign exchange market sometimes take a blind eye to the attitude of the same, when the dollar was all the way down the bear trend, any published economic indicators are negative, will become the foreign exchange market to further throw the reason for the dollar U.S., Germany and other monthly wholesale prices, retail price index changes on the foreign exchange market also has an impact, but The size of the impact depends on the specific conditions in general, when the market for a countrys central bank there are expectations of interest rate cuts or interest rate increases, its monthly price index published on the foreign exchange market sensitivity is very strong For example, in November 1992, Australias Australian dollar to the U.S. dollar exchange rate has hit the lowest point in recent years, the foreign exchange market many people believe that the Australian dollar has been close to the bottom, may begin to rebound but the market is also someone According to the forecast of Australias bleak economic outlook, rumors that the Central Bank of Australia may take interest rate cuts to stimulate the economy At this time, the Australian government announced the wholesale price inflation rate in October was only 0.1%, the lowest level in the past 10 years, the foreign exchange market as if it found the basis for its interest rate cut expectations, the day there was a throw Australian dollar wind, so that the Australian dollar hovered at the trough (d) the objective economic environment In addition to the impact of economic statistics, other reports on economic activity will also have a great impact on the foreign exchange market foreign exchange price changes to a large extent is the foreign exchange market peoples expectations of foreign exchange fluctuations are reflected, in other words, if people expect foreign exchange to have a certain long-term equilibrium price, then the spot price fluctuations will move in the direction of this price and this expectation is something subjective. It will inevitably be affected by the objective economic environment Therefore, in the absence of data distribution on economic activity for several days in a row, the speech of the relevant national monetary authority officials, the Wall Street Journal on the foreign exchange market an influential article, a research institution or a large enterprise on the foreign exchange trend of the research report, etc., may cause a sharp fluctuation in the foreign exchange market on a certain day This phenomenon for those who are in To those outside the foreign exchange market, it seems difficult to understand why a speech by an official would cause the dollar to plunge or jump 2 to 3 cents (i.e., 200 to 300 points). If you take into account the subjective expectations of people, this phenomenon is not difficult to explain an officials speech in an important article on foreign exchange is simply to provide some kind of signal to peoples reasonable expectations act as a catalyst, and finally lead to the volatility of the foreign exchange market and the magnitude of the volatility, by the size of these signals in the reasonable expectations of the role of the catalyst to decide if the market does not consider it a signal, then This speech again, the foreign exchange market people will also turn a deaf ear more typical example is the British pound at the end of 1992 the decline since September 1992 after the crisis of the European monetary system, the foreign exchange market appeared to throw the pound wind, the reason is that the British economic outlook is gloomy, the British economic policy uncertainty, the British interest rate cuts look forward to a variety of factors, in order to stabilize the exchange rate of the pound, the British Chancellor of the Exchequer Lamont repeatedly published speech, said to stabilize the exchange rate of the pound, and may even raise interest rates to raise the exchange rate of the pound but each time can only give the exchange rate of the pound to a weak and short-lived support, after a slight rebound in the pound, the foreign exchange market has more people to throw the pound GDP is a measure of the production and consumption of goods and services, a composite indicator used to assess the overall economic health, its data release usually lags behind the reporting period, so often by the market Anticipated, strong GDP data indicates increased economic activity and typically boosts demand for the local currency from trade and foreign investment, while economic expansion increases inflation concerns and may prompt monetary policy authorities to raise interest rates Higher-than-expected GDP data is generally positive for the local currency The following is the formula for calculating GDP: GDP = C + I + G + (EX-IM) where: C is private consumption; I is private investment; G represents government spending; EX represents exports of goods and services; IM represents imports of goods and services

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